北京市农业发展与资源环境的耦合过程与解耦分析

基于农业可持续发展视角, 系统探讨 2005 年以来北京市农业发展与资源环境的时空演化特征及其耦合、解耦过程, 得到如下结论。1) 2005—2017年, 北京市农业发展水平先增强后减弱。经济产出特征与农业发展特征相似; 农业社会发展水平指数先快速减小后缓慢提升, 但总体减弱; 产业现代化水平持续提升。2) 农业资源环境压力先增强后减弱。资源承载及消耗指数与压力指数的变化趋势相同, 且对农业资源环境压力指数的影响明显; 环境污染指数逐年下降。3) 全市资源环境压力与农业发展之间经历了“最不利状态→理想状态→相对乐观状态”的动态演变, 解耦和耦合状态并存, 并以解耦状态为主。在未来农业转型升级进程中, 仍需注重农业生态化发展及其多功能价值的挖掘, 促进农业发展与资源环境的有序平衡。

Coupling Process and Decoupling Analysis of Agricultural Development and Resource-environment in Beijing

Based on the perspective of sustainable agricultural development, this study systematically discusses the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics, coupling and decoupling process of agricultural development and resource-environment in Beijing since 2005. The results are as follows. 1) From 2005 to 2017, Beijing’s agricultural development first strengthens and then weakens. The development characteristics of economic output are similar to those of agricultural development; the indexes of agricultural social development first decreases rapidly and then slowly increases, but generally showing a weakening trend; the industrial modernization continues to improve. 2) The pressure of agricultural resources and environment strengthens first and then abates. The change trend of the resource carrying and consumption indexes are the same as that of the pressure index, and the influence on the pressure index of agricultural resources and environment is obvious; the environmental pollution index decreases year by year. 3) There has been a dynamic evolution from “the most unfavorable state→the ideal state→the relatively optimistic state” between the pressure of resources and environment and the development of agriculture in the city, with coexistence of decoupling and coupling states and the decoupling state as the main one. In the process of agricultural sustainable transformation and upgrading in future, it is necessary to emphasize the ecological development of agriculture and its multi-functional value excavation and to promote its orderly balance with resources and environment.