| 加权几何平均组合预测方法在公路客运量预测中的应用研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨文华.加权几何平均组合预测方法在公路客运量预测中的应用研究[J].合肥学院学报(自然科学版),2014(4):32-35. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨文华 |
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| 作者单位： | 马鞍山市委党校经济教研室,安徽马鞍山,243011 |
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| 基金项目： | 安徽省教育厅人文社科研究项目(SK2012B579)资助． |
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| 摘 要： | 对我国公路客运量进行科学、准确的预测，提前掌握客运量的变化发展趋势及规律，是为职能部门制定公路客运发展规划和配置基础设施的基础。提出基于向量投影法的加权几何平均的组合预测模型，并运用该模型对某城市2003－2015年公路客运量进行了预测，预测结果表明该方法具有较好的预测精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 组合预测 公路客运量 投影法 对数误差 |
The Application in The Highway Passenger Quantity Based on The Method of Weighted Geometric Means Combination Forecasting Model |
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| YANG Wen-hua.The Application in The Highway Passenger Quantity Based on The Method of Weighted Geometric Means Combination Forecasting Model[J].Journal of Hefei University :Natural Sciences,2014(4):32-35. |
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| Authors: | YANG Wen-hua |
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| Institution: | YANG Wen-hua (The Teaching and Research Laboratory of Economic, Municipal Party Committee Party School of Maanshan, Maanshan Anhui 243011,China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to predict the highway passenger quantity ,grasp the development trend of the change of passenger traffic and rule in advance .And for functions of the high passenger transportation development planning and allocation of infrastructure .Weighted geometric means combination forecasting is put up in this paper , w hich are superior combination forecasting .And the model is used to predict the quantity of the highway passenger from 2003 to 2015 of a city .Finally a numerical example is given to illustrate the method is effective . |
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| Keywords: | combination forecasting highway passenger quantity project method logarithm error |
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