| 俄罗斯对外贸易现状研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙长华,宗国仕,张未名.俄罗斯对外贸易现状研究[J].长春师范学院学报,2011(7):33-37. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙长华 宗国仕 张未名 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海财经大学世界经济系;长春师范学院数学学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 以俄罗斯1994年第1季度至2009年第4季度的进出口贸易季度数据为样本,通过Engle&Granger协整检验发现俄罗斯的季度出口与进口之间存在协整关系,这表明虽然俄罗斯的贸易盈余一直在上升,但却并没有失控,仅仅是一种短期失衡现象。而误差修正模型(ECM)显示,俄罗斯对外贸易的自我修正的短期动态机制是存在的。
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| 关 键 词： | 俄罗斯 对外贸易 协整检验 |
Research on the Current Situation of Russian Foreign Trade |
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| SUN Chang-hua,ZONG Guo-shi,ZHANG Wei-ming.Research on the Current Situation of Russian Foreign Trade[J].Journal of Changchun Teachers College,2011(7):33-37. |
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| Authors: | SUN Chang-hua ZONG Guo-shi ZHANG Wei-ming |
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| Institution: | 1.Department of World Economy,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China;2.Mathematical College of Changchun Normal University,Changchun 130032,China) |
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| Abstract: | Choosing the quarterly data of Russian import and export trade from the first quarter of 1994 to the fourth quarter of 2009 as samples,we find the existence of co-integration relationship between the quarterly data of Russian import and its export trade by Engle & Granger co-integration test.This shows that the trade surplus of Russia is still under control despite of its rising trend,and it is merely a short-term imbalance phenomenon.Error Correction Model shows that the short-term dynamic mechanism of self-repair of Russian foreign trade does exist. |
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| Keywords: | Russia foreign trade co-integration test |
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