江苏沿海地区围垦动态与土地利用变化驱动力研究

为研究沿海地区围垦动态以及土地利用变化的主要驱动力，以江苏沿海地区为研究区，基于ENVI 5.3与ArcGIS 10.0平台，以2000年Landsat-7 ETM和2017年Landsat-8 OLI的遥感影像为数据源，采用目视解译的方式提取海岸线，然后用监督分类方法得到江苏沿海地区2000年和2017年的土地利用数据，运用主成分分析法得出该地区土地利用变化的主要驱动因子。结果表明:(a)2000—2017年间江苏沿海地区进行了大规模的围垦，江苏省围垦土地面积107 420.0 hm²，年均围垦面积6 318.8 hm²，全省平均岸线围垦强度为7.11 hm²/(a·km)。(b)连云港市围垦强度最低，大部分耕地、林地与水体转化为城乡、工矿及居民用地；盐城市海岸线长度最长，围垦面积最大，整体利用格局向海岸方向迁移，耕地、未利用土地等面积略有下降；南通市围垦强度最大，林地面积大幅度减小，城镇面积增加。(c)人口增长与社会经济的发展是江苏沿海围垦与土地利用变化的主要驱动力。

Research on driving forces of reclamation dynamics and land use change in coastal areas of Jiangsu Province

In order to study the main driving force of reclamation dynamics and land use change in coastal areas, this study selected the coastal areas of Jiangsu province as the research area. Based on the ENVI 5. 3 and ArcGIS 10. 0 software, as well as the data of Landsat-7 ETM remote sensing image in 2000 and Landsat-8 OLI remote sensing image in 2017, the shoreline was extracted by the visual interpretation and classified by the supervised classification method, to obtain the land use information in 2000 and 2017. The driving forces were obtained by the principal component analysis based on the SPSS 20. 0 software. The results showed that during the period from 2000 to 2017, the coastal areas of Jiangsu province were reclaimed on a large scale. The coastal land with area of 107 420. 0 hm² was reclaimed for different uses, at an annual rate of 6 318. 8 hm² and the intensity of coastal reclamation of 7. 11 hm²/(a·km). In the past 16 years, the coastal area of Lianyungang had the lowest reclamation intensity, and most of the farmland, woodland and water were converted into the urban and rural areas, industrial mining and residential land. Besides, the coastline of Yancheng coastal area was longest and the reclamation area was largest, the whole land utilization pattern moved towards the coast, and the area of farmland and unutilized land reduced. In the coastal area of Nantong, the reclamation intensity was largest, the woodland area was decreased by a large margin, and the urban area was increased. Population growth and social and economic development are the main driving forces of coastal reclamation and land use change in coastal areas of Jiangsu province.