动水条件下太湖水体透明度及其影响因子模拟

利用太湖长序列实测资料,分析了太湖水体透明度的主要影响因子,建立了透明度与其影响因子之间的多元回归方程,基于该方程,建立了动水条件下太湖水体的透明度数学模型.结果表明,悬浮物质量浓度是太湖透明度最重要的影响因素,藻类和有机物质量浓度对透明度的影响不确定性较大,但总体来看呈现明显的反比关系.根据透明度及其影响因子的分布特征,分季节(春季和夏季)、分湖区(梅梁湾、湖心及沿岸区、东太湖)建立的透明度与悬浮物、藻类及高锰酸盐指数(CODMn)质量浓度之间的多元回归方程具有较好的相关性,所建立的模型对太湖水体透明度以及影响因子具有较好的描述能力,说明该模型是合理的.

Simulation of transparency and its factors in Taihu Lake under hydrodynamic conditions

Using a long-term series of measured data from Taihu Lake, the main factors in transparency were analyzed, and multiple regression equations were established. On this basis, a mathematical model of the transparency of Taihu Lake under hydrodynamic conditions was proposed. The results show that the mass concentration of suspended solids is the primary factor affecting the water transparency in Taihu Lake. The mass concentration of the algae and organic matter has an uncertain effect on the water transparency, and they have an inverse relation overall. According to the temporal and spatial distribution of the water transparency and its factors, the multiple regression equations for the water transparency in Taihu Lake and the mass concentration of the suspended solids, algae, and permanganate index (COD_(Mn)) for different seasons (spring and summer) and lake regions (Meiliang Bay, center and shore of Taihu Lake, East Taihu Lake) exhibit good correlation. The present model can satisfactorily depict the water transparency and its factors and is rational.