面向决策支持的复杂防洪系统多目标决策模型

以复杂的长江防洪系统联合调度问题为研究背景，应用大系统分解协调递阶求解原理和多目标权重方法，提出了子系统之间分解协调连接递阶结构的计算方法，建立面向决策支持的长江防洪系统的多目标联合调度模型．在考虑已建成的三峡水库及其他干支流水库的基础上，将边界定为从长江上中游干支流水库至汉口河段，并运用1931年、1935年和1954年资料进行模拟仿真验证．研究结果表明，该模型不仅考虑了防洪系统的多目标性、系统的拓展性和防洪系统各个水库的可操作性，而且考虑了防洪系统整体目标，同时可调整有关目标函数权重参数进行各个目标的权衡分析，可以生成面向决策支持的长江防洪系统联合调度多方案．

Decision-making support-oriented multi-objective decision-making model for complex flood control system

In consideration of the combined operation of the complicated Yangtze River flood control system, a calculation method was proposed for the decomposition-coordination-recursion structure between subsystems, and a decision-making support-oriented multi-objective combined operation model was developed for the Yangtze River flood control system. In the present study, the boundary of the studied area was determined from the reservoirs on the main and tributaries of the middle and upper Yangtze River to the Hankou section, with the Three Gorges Reservoir and other reservoirs having been built taken into account, and three typical large flood hydrographs (1931, 1935, and 1954) were used for simulation. The result shows that the model not only can take into account the characteristics of multiple objectives and expansibility of the flood control system, the maneuverability of each reservoir, and the integral objective of the flood control system, but also can perform tradeoff analysis for each objective by adjustment of weight parameters related, and formulate decision making support-oriented system regulation schemes.