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基于FIG和GWO-SVM的灌浆功率时序预测
引用本文:邓韶辉,王晓玲,石祖智,祝玉珊,赵梦琦.基于FIG和GWO-SVM的灌浆功率时序预测[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2020,48(5):426-432.
作者姓名:邓韶辉  王晓玲  石祖智  祝玉珊  赵梦琦
作者单位:天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津 300072,天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津 300072,天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津 300072,天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津 300072,天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津 300072
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(51439005);国家自然科学基金雅砻江联合基金(U1765205)
摘    要:为更好地预测灌浆功率时序,建立基于模糊信息粒化(FIG)和灰狼优化支持向量机(GWO-SVM)的灌浆功率时序预测模型。首先,引入信息粒计算方法,将原始详尽的时间序列数值点分解为一系列信息粒,以减少模型的数据输入总量;其次,基于模糊集理论,采用模糊集算子对每个信息粒进行模糊计算,使得到的模糊信息粒可以合理地表示原始数值点集;最后,以支持向量机作为预测工具,并采用灰狼优化算法进行参数寻优,对产生的模糊信息粒进行快速准确的预测。结合实际工程,应用该预测模型对灌浆功率的波动范围和变化趋势进行预测研究,经过性能评价和对比分析,验证了模型的有效性和优越性。

关 键 词:灌浆功率  灌浆质量  时序预测  信息粒  模糊集  支持向量机  灰狼优化算法

Prediction of grouting power time series based on FIG and GWO-SVM
DENG Shaohui,WANG Xiaoling,SHI Zuzhi,ZHU Yushan,ZHAO Mengqi.Prediction of grouting power time series based on FIG and GWO-SVM[J].Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences ),2020,48(5):426-432.
Authors:DENG Shaohui  WANG Xiaoling  SHI Zuzhi  ZHU Yushan  ZHAO Mengqi
Institution:State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
Abstract:This paper proposed a grouting power time series prediction model, based on fuzzy information granulation(FIG)and grey wolf optimized support vector machine(GWO-SVM). The model establishment consisted of three major steps. First, the granular computing method was introduced to decompose the original numerical time series into a series of information granules for reducing the scale of the data. Second, based on the theory of fuzzy sets, the fuzzy set operator was used to carry out the fuzzy calculation for each information granular, so that the obtained fuzzy information granular can reasonably represent the original numerical point set. Finally, the support vector machine was used as a predictive tool, optimized by the grey wolf optimizer algorithm, and the information granules can be predicted quickly, accurately and robustly. Taking an actual project as an example, this model was used to predict the fluctuation range and trend of grouting power time series during the grouting process. After the performance evaluation and comparative analysis, the feasibility and effectiveness of the prediction model were verified.
Keywords:grouting power  grout quality  time series prediction  information granular  fuzzy set  support vector machine  grey wolf optimizer
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