随机水文模型赫斯特系数的统计规律研究

对短持续类模型中ＡＲ（１），ＡＲ（２）及ＡＲＭＡ（１，１）和长持续类模型中ＦＦＧＮ的赫斯特系数的统计规律进行了研究，结果表明：短持续性模型不能在很长的时间水平上但可在较短的时间水平上保持某一指定的赫斯特系数；而长持续类模拟可在很长或无限长的时间水平上保持某一指定的赫斯特系数值，因此在设计标准不高时，若强调模型对赫斯特系数的保持，可以采用适当的短持续模型，否则宜采用长持续类模型。

Statistic Properties of Hurst Coefficient of Stochastic Hydrologic Models

he persistence properties of several hydrological stochastic models expressed as AR (1),AR(2),ARMA(1,1)and FFGN are investigated. By means of Monte-carlo simulation,comparisons have been made of these models in preserving Hurst coefficient.It is shown that the expected Hurst coefficient can be preserved in a relatively short period by specially selecting parameters of a short term persistence model, which guarantees the application of an ARMA model in preserving persistence of a simulated series if the degined standard is not high;