大江大河多断面水位实时预报的半自适应模型研究

把河道水位计算公式线性化后的矩阵方程作为系统方程，建立了卡尔曼滤波的状态方程和量测方程，根据滤波方面的理论研究提出了适用于河道多断面水位实时预报的卡尔曼半自适应滤波模型。在该模型中量测误差系列的协方差矩阵可以通过信息更新系列实时地估计出来，只有模型误差系列的协方差矩阵需要预先给出，以淮河鲁台子－小柳巷河段为例对该模型进行检验，并与其它方法进行比较，验证结果说明了该模型的合理性。

A Semi-Adaptive Model of Real Time Channel Flood Stage Forecasting for Large Rivers

A Semi adaptive Kalman filter updating model of real time channel flood stage forecasting for large rivers is developed. In the model, a state space formula is established based on the linearization of the momentum equation in the Saint Venant equations. The covariance matrix of measurement errors can be estimated through real time information updating, while the covariance matrix of model errors needs to be preassigned. With the Lutaizi Xiaoliuxiang section of the Huaihe River as an example, the model is tested and compared with other methods, and the reasonability of the model is verified.