| 长江三峡工程设计洪水的期望概率研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 丛树铮,王俊德,刘治中,陈甦民,陈敏建.长江三峡工程设计洪水的期望概率研究[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),1988(3). |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 丛树铮 王俊德 刘治中 陈甦民 陈敏建 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 河海大学水资源水文系，河海大学水资源水文系，河海大学水资源水文系，长江流域规划办公室水文局，长江流域规划办公室水文局 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 本文阐述了根据我国提出的设计洪水期望概率的普遍计算公式而采用统计试验技术计算洪水期望概率的方法,並对长江三峡工程设计洪水的期望概率进行了计算.结果表明,长江三峡工程千年及万年一遇设计洪水的期望概率都接近或略小于设计频率.这不仅说明了该设计洪水确实达到了预定的安全标准,同时也有力地论证了该设计洪水的合理性和可靠性.
|
| 关 键 词： | 三峡 设计洪水 设计频率 期望概率 破坏概率 |
Study on Expected Probability of Design Flood for Three Gorges Project |
| |
| Gong Shuzheng, Wang Junde, Liu Zhizhong, Chen Sumin, Chen Minjian.Study on Expected Probability of Design Flood for Three Gorges Project[J].Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences ),1988(3). |
| |
| Authors: | Gong Shuzheng Wang Junde Liu Zhizhong Chen Sumin Chen Minjian |
| |
| Institution: | Gong Shuzheng; Wang Junde; Liu Zhizhong; Chen Sumin; Chen Minjian |
| |
| Abstract: | This paper explains the basic method of using the general formula developed by Cong Shuzheng to calculate the probability of failure , or expected probability, of hydraulic projects, Specifically, the paper gives the calculation results of the failure probability of the design flood for Three Gorges on the Yangtze River. The results show that the expected probabilities of the 1000 and 10000 year design flood are very closed to or slightly smaller than the design probabilities , 1/1000 and 1/10000 respectively. This means that the design floods of the Three Gorges project can ensure that the design safety standard shall be attained. |
| |
| Keywords: | Three Gorges design flood design frequency expected probability probability of failure |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
