具有物理基础的太湖水位多元回归模型

本文分析和比较了太湖水位预报的三种可能途径,认为采用具有物理基础的相关途径编制太湖水位预报方案最合适.在此基础上将太湖流域简化成 m 个线性入流系统和 n 个出流河道,根据水量平衡方程、水力学方法和水文学原理,推导出具有物理基础的太湖水位预报多元回归模型.模型的主要方程是线性的,其系数的物理意义是明确的.可以采用逐步回归方法和分析方法相结合的途径来确定.在太湖水位预报中,应用这一模型可以满足预报精度的要求.

A Physics-Based Multi-Regression Model for Taihu Lake Stage

Three Taihu lake stage forecast appoaches are analyzed and compared and the physics-based correlation approach is regarded as the most suitable.Besed on the water-balance equation,hydraulic methods and hydrologic theory,a physics-based multi-regression model for Taihu Lake stage is framed simplifying Taihu Lake basin into m linear response sub-basins and n drainage channels.As the main equations in the model are linear and the physical concept of its parameters is clear,they can be estimated by stepwise regression method and analysis approach.The model has been successfully applied to Taihu lake stage forecast.