| 非线性逐步回归在宜昌站年径流量预报中的应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 胡己坤,曹丽青,葛朝霞,郑苏娟,黄美花.非线性逐步回归在宜昌站年径流量预报中的应用[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2011,39(1):1-4. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 胡己坤 曹丽青 葛朝霞 郑苏娟 黄美花 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏,南京210098;河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏,南京210098
2. 河海大学理学院,江苏,南京210098 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为了分析非线性关系的引入对中长期水文预报精度的影响,以对数变换后得到的非线性逐步回归模型为基础,利用长江宜昌站年径流量进行中长期水文预报,并与传统的逐步回归模型预报值进行比较.结果表明:宜昌站年径流量与该站上一年汛期7月、8月、10月流量存在明显非线性关系,并对太平洋副高活动以及厄尔尼诺效应反应敏感;非线性逐步回归模型...
|
| 关 键 词： | 非线性 逐步回归 中长期水文预报 宜昌站 |
| 修稿时间： | 2011/3/9 0:00:00 |
Application of nonlinear stepwise regression in prediction of annual discharge at Yichang station |
| |
| HU Ji-kun,CAO Li-qing,GE Zhao-xia,ZHENG Su-juan,HUANG Mei-hua.Application of nonlinear stepwise regression in prediction of annual discharge at Yichang station[J].Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences ),2011,39(1):1-4. |
| |
| Authors: | HU Ji-kun CAO Li-qing GE Zhao-xia ZHENG Su-juan HUANG Mei-hua |
| |
| Institution: | HU Ji-kun1,2,CAO Li-qing1,GE Zhao-xia1,ZHENG Su-juan3,HUANG Mei-hua1,2(1.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China,2.College of Hydrology and Water Resources,3.College of Sciences,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | In order to analyze the influences of introducing nonlinear relationship on the precision of middle-and long-term hydrological prediction,the mean annual discharge at Yichang station on Changjiang River was employed for the hydrological prediction based on the nonlinear stepwise regression model through log-transformation.The predicted values were compared with those by the traditional stepwise regression models.The results show that the annual discharge at Yichang station has a remarkable nonlinear relatio... |
| |
| Keywords: | nonlinearity stepwise regression middle-and long-term hydrological prediction Yichang station |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《河海大学学报(自然科学版)》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《河海大学学报(自然科学版)》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
