| 灰色马尔可夫链模型的改进及其应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵琳琳,夏乐天.灰色马尔可夫链模型的改进及其应用[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2007,35(4):487-490. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵琳琳 夏乐天 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学理学院,江苏,南京,210098 |
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| 摘 要： | 将灰色模型与马尔可夫链方法相结合,建立了灰色马尔可夫链预测模型,并对该模型进行了改进.采用滑动转移概率矩阵,并依据广西合面狮水库10 a的年最大洪水流量预测以后2 a的年最大洪水流量范围.结果表明,采用改进的灰色马尔可夫链模型,可比较准确地预测随机波动性较大的水文数据序列的范围.
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| 关 键 词： | 马尔可夫链 灰色模型 滑动转移概率矩阵 年最大洪水流量 合面狮水库 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-1980（2007）04-0487-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-06-05 |
Improved gray Markov SCGM(1,1) model and its application |
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| ZHAO Lin-lin,XIA Le-tian.Improved gray Markov SCGM(1,1) model and its application[J].Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences ),2007,35(4):487-490. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Lin-lin XIA Le-tian |
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| Institution: | College of Sciences, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China |
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| Abstract: | By combination of gray prediction model with Markov chain theory,a gray Markov SCGM(1,1) model was proposed and improved.Based on sliding transition probability matrix and the annual maximum flood discharge of 10 years of Hemianshi Reservoir,the range of the annual maximum flood discharge for the next 2 years was predicted.The result shows that the present model can accurately predict the range of hydrologic data sequences with large random fluctuation. |
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| Keywords: | Markov chain gray model sliding transition probability matrix annual maximum flood discharge Hemianshi Reservoir |
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