| 灰色系统参数估计与不良数据辨识 |
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| 引用本文： | 康重庆,夏清,相年德.灰色系统参数估计与不良数据辨识[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),1997(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 康重庆 夏清 相年德 |
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| 作者单位： | 清华大学电机工程与应用电子技术系 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对序列中含有空穴或不良数据的情况，将参数估计与不良数据辨识理论作为数据预处理技术应用于灰色系统建模。以观测数据为依据进行参数估计，避免了常规模型将空穴处的生成数据与其余实际数据同等对待的弊端；对序列作检测与辨识，使剔除不良数据后的参数估计结果更为精确。在电力系统灰色负荷预测中的应用结果表明，这一方法在提高灰色系统建模精度方面有相当的优越性，预测结果比常规灰色模型有很大的改善。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色模型 参数估计 不良数据检测与辨识 电力系统负荷预测 |
Parameter estimation and bad data identification of grey systems |
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| Kang Chongqing,Xia Qing,Xiang Niande.Parameter estimation and bad data identification of grey systems[J].Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology),1997(4). |
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| Authors: | Kang Chongqing Xia Qing Xiang Niande |
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| Institution: | Kang Chongqing,Xia Qing,Xiang Niande Department of Electrical Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084 |
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| Abstract: | The methods of parameter estimation and bad data detection and identification are applied in grey system modeling to improve its accuracy. The proposed methods can be used as data preparation techniques to detect bad data and fill the blank with a more accurate value in an initial series. The modeling accuracy of grey system is greatly improved by such methods. As an application, power system load forecasting using grey models is studied and some more reasonable forecasting results are got comparing to conventional grey system methods. |
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| Keywords: | grey model parameter estimation bad data detection and identification power system load forecasting |
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