| 考虑应急救援的危险化学品泄漏事故后果风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 张超,陈晓,陈建国,刘奕.考虑应急救援的危险化学品泄漏事故后果风险评估[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2009(5). |
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| 作者姓名： | 张超 陈晓 陈建国 刘奕 |
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| 作者单位： | 清华大学工程物理系;清华大学公共安全研究中心;清华大学核能与新能源技术研究院; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(70601015,70833003) |
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| 摘 要： | 采用层次分析法(AHP)和案例分析相结合的方法,建立了基于事故后果评价的危验化学品风险评估模型。模型综合考虑了事故直接后果、次生衍生事故、以及应急救援等因素,并提出了应急救援的风险抵消作用的建模方法。利用该模型对危验化学品泄漏事故进行了风险评估,采用实际案例对评估结果进行了验证。基于该模型分析了应急救援对事故后果风险的抵消作用。研究表明:所建立的风险评估模型能较好地反映实际事故后果情况,应急救援力量对减低事故后果风险具有重要作用,在风险评估中应予充分考虑。
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| 关 键 词： | 风险评估 层次分析法 应急救援 危险化学品 |
Risk assessment of dangerous chemical leakage with emergency response |
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| ZHANG Chao,CHEN Xiao,CHEN Jianguo,LIU Yi.Risk assessment of dangerous chemical leakage with emergency response[J].Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology),2009(5). |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Chao CHEN Xiao CHEN Jianguo LIU Yi |
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| Institution: | 1.Department of Engineering Physics;Tsinghua University;Beijing 100084;China;2.Center for Public Safety Research;3.Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology;China |
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| Abstract: | A risk assessment model was developed based on the analytical hierarchy process(AHP)with case studies for dangerous chemical leakage accidents.The model considers the direct loss due to the accident,derived accidents,and emergency response effects.The effect of the emergency response is modeled as a "loss-reducing effect",with quantitative risk assessments for accident cases analyzed.Comparisons between these risk assessment results and case studies show that this model satisfactorily predicts the results a... |
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