| 在土地资源和环境承载力约束下的城市工业发展 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 莫虹频,温宗国,陈吉宁.在土地资源和环境承载力约束下的城市工业发展[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2008(12). |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 莫虹频 温宗国 陈吉宁 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 清华大学环境科学与工程系; |
| |
| 摘 要： | 在土地资源和环境承载力的约束条件下,分析了当今中国城市工业发展的适宜规模。以工业结构演化理论和概率论为基础进行定量分析,集成了情景分析、Monte Carlo模拟与HSY算法。以用地资源为约束条件,设定了3种情景的大连市2010年和2020年工业结构。计算结果表明:大连市11个行业中,电力行业对土地占有量的影响最明显;2010年适宜规模为87~123亿元。超越该上限,将导致较大的突破土地资源承载力风险。
|
| 关 键 词： | 城市工业发展 资源承载力 情景分析 HSY算法 大连 |
Urban industrial development of in view of the constraints of environmental and land resources capacity |
| |
| MO Hongpin,WEN Zongguo,CHEN Jining.Urban industrial development of in view of the constraints of environmental and land resources capacity[J].Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology),2008(12). |
| |
| Authors: | MO Hongpin WEN Zongguo CHEN Jining |
| |
| Institution: | MO Hongpin,WEN Zongguo,CHEN Jining(Department of Environmental Science , Engineering,Beijing 100084,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | A quantitative analysis framework was developed to analyze China's current and future urban industrial development.The analysis used Monte Carlo simulation,HSY(Homberger,Spear and Young)algorithm based on industrial structural evolution rules and probability theory.Three scenarios were selected for Dalian industries in 2010 and 2020 in view of the constraints of environmental and land resources capacity.The results show that out of the 11 analyzed industries,the power industry has the most significant impac... |
| |
| Keywords: | urban industry development resource capacity scenario analysis HSY(Homberger Spear and Young)algorithm Dalian city |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
