| 基于时间序列与人工神经网络的房地产周期识别 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱骏,张红.基于时间序列与人工神经网络的房地产周期识别[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2006,46(6):781-784. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱骏 张红 |
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| 作者单位： | 清华大学,建设管理系,北京,100084 |
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| 摘 要： | 房地产市场的发展存在明显的周期特性,对房地产周期进行识别有助于政府及其他市场参与者进行科学决策。利用时间序列分析对1992—2003年的北京房地产市场周期发展阶段进行判别研究,并将该判别结果作为训练样本,利用局部改进的标准BP人工神经网络构建了房地产周期识别模型。识别研究表明:2004年北京房地产市场处于收缩阶段,国家宏观政策对房地产市场的理性发展起到了积极的作用。
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| 关 键 词： | 房地产周期 周期识别 人工神经网络 时间序列分析 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0054(2006)06-0781-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年6月22日 |
Real estate cycle identification based on time sequence analysis and ANN |
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| ZHU Jun,ZHANG Hong.Real estate cycle identification based on time sequence analysis and ANN[J].Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology),2006,46(6):781-784. |
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| Authors: | ZHU Jun ZHANG Hong |
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| Abstract: | Real estate cycles were analyzed using time sequence analysis and artifical neural network model to help market participants identify real estate cycle scientifically and make reasonable decisions.The time sequence analysis was used to distinguish the different development phases of the Beijing real estate market from 1992 to 2003.A real estate market cycle identification model was developed by the distinguished results and an improved standard error back propagation artificial neural network.This model shows that the Beijing real estate market in 2004 was in the shrinkage stage due to government policies. |
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| Keywords: | real estate cycle cycle identification artificial neural networks time sequence analysis |
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