| 中国乘用车与商用车保有量预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 郝瀚,王贺武,欧阳明高.中国乘用车与商用车保有量预测[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2011(6):868-872. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 郝瀚 王贺武 欧阳明高 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 清华大学汽车安全与节能国家重点实验室;清华大学中国车用能源研究中心 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家“八六三”高技术项目(2008AA11A157) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为了获得中国未来汽车保有量及其构成,分别采用Gompertz模型和线性外推模型对中国的乘用车和商用车保有量进行了预测。结果表明:中国汽车保有量在2020年和2030年将分别达到2.5—2.9亿辆和4—5.2亿辆,其中乘用车保有量增长速度相对较快,且存在一定不确定性,在2020年和2030年将分别达到2.2—2.6亿辆和3.5—4.8亿辆。商用车保有量在2020年和2030年将分别达到0.33和0.47亿辆。在2030年之前,中国汽车保有率将快速提高,但是相比发达国家将始终有较大差距。
|
| 关 键 词： | 公路运输经济 乘用车 商用车 保有量预测 |
Predictions of China’s passenger vehicle and commercial vehicle stocks |
| |
| Institution: | HAO Han1,2,WANG Hewu1,2,OUYANG Minggao1,2 (1.State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy, Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China; 2.China Automotive Energy Research Center, Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | The stocks of China’s passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles were projected by employing Gompertz model and linear extrapolation model.The results indicate that China’s vehicle stock will reach 252—292 million in 2020 and 398—523 million in 2030.The passenger vehicle stock will grow faster with some uncertainty,reaching 220—259 million in 2020 and 351—476 million in 2030.The commercial vehicle stock will reach 32.8 million in 2020 and 46.9 million in 2030.In spite of the fast growth of the vehicle stock in China,the vehicle ownership level of China will still be far behind developed countries. |
| |
| Keywords: | highway transportation economy passenger vehicle commercial vehicle stock projection |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
|
