共享电单车消费者骑行行为的演化分析

该文运用演化博弈方法,考虑社会化媒体的舆论作用,构建运营商与消费者的长期演化博弈模型,对共享电单车消费者的骑行行为进行了分析.在此基础上,运用数值仿真模拟分析参与人决策行为的动态变化.研究结果表明:直接收益最大化不能作为决策依据,参与人应考虑行动的外部性,并将外部收益纳入收益矩阵中; 适度的社会化媒体曝光,有效地控制了运营商的惩罚力度,调整了参与人的策略,进而调整了系统的演化方向; 同时,发现运营商过高的惩罚力度或媒体较高的曝光率都会造成系统的不稳定.共享电单车的健康发展,需要运营商、消费者与社会化媒体的共同努力.

The Evolutionary Analysis on Consumers' Cycling Behavior of Shared Electric Bikes

In this paper,a long-term evolutionary game is constructed between operators and consumers considering the social media,to research the cycling behavior of consumers.On this basis,numerical simulation is used to analyze the dynamic change of participants' decision-making behavior.The results show that the decision cannot be made according to the direct benefit only,and the externality of actions with the external benefits shall be considered into the payoff matrix.Appropriate social media exposure effectively limits the operators' punishment,and adjusts the strategies of participants,even the evolution direction of the system.At the same time,it is found that the excessive operators' punishment or the high media's exposure rate will lead to the instability of the system.The healthy development of shared electric bikes requires the efforts of operators,consumers and social media.