PERT在建设项目施工进度风险中的应用

工程中的各种风险会引起工程中各道工序持续时间的不确定性，因此计划评审技术（PERT）在进度风险中得到广泛的应用。该方法主要假定每项活动都是随机独立的、服从正态分布。根据PERT的三时估计，估算出各道工序的期望持续时间、期望工期以及整个项目的完工概率。最后应用PERT模型对工程实例进行进度风险研究分析。

THE APPLICATION OF THE PERT IN THE CONSTRUCTION PROJECT SCHEDULE OF THE RISK

Because the duration of the each process caused by the every risk is uncertain in the construction, PERT is wJdel.y used m the progress risk, This method mainly hypothesizes that every activity is randomly independent, and obeys normal distribution. According to the PERT＇s three-time estimate, the paper estimates the expected duration of the each process, then calculates the expected construction period and the whole project＇ s completion probability. In the end the paper uses the PERT modle to study and analysis the progress risk of the construction example.