| 模糊层次分析法在系统中长期负荷协调控制预测中的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 孟祥萍,冯国杰,余雪芳,魏本艳.模糊层次分析法在系统中长期负荷协调控制预测中的研究[J].长春工程学院学报(自然科学版),2010,11(3):38-41. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孟祥萍 冯国杰 余雪芳 魏本艳 |
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| 作者单位： | 长春工程学院,电气与信息工程学院;长春工业大学,电气与电子工程学院,长春,130012;东北电力大学,电气工程学院;东北电力大学,信息工程学院,吉林,132012 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然基金(60974055)吉林省科技发展计划项目(20080414-1)长春市科技计划项目(08K218)支撑 |
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| 摘 要： | 电力负荷预测是电力系统规划的重要工作之一.提出一种改进的模糊层次分析法来进行中长期负荷预测.首先,采用三角模糊数表征专家判断信息以充分考虑专家判断的模糊性,采用层次分析法对专家判断结果进行处理以得到方案层各方案的最优权重.该负荷预测模型综合考虑了影响电力负荷的多种不确定因素,并在综合不同模型预测结果的过程中引入专家经验.最后,研究结果表明,该方法相比传统方法能够更好地应用于电网中长期电力负荷预测.
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| 关 键 词： | 系统负荷预测 模糊层次分析法 三角模糊数 递阶层次结构 |
Study of fuzzy AHP model to system mid-long term load coordination control forecasting |
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| MENG Xiang-ping,etc..Study of fuzzy AHP model to system mid-long term load coordination control forecasting[J].Journal of Changchun Institute of Technology(Natural Science Edition),2010,11(3):38-41. |
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| Authors: | MENG Xiang-ping etc |
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| Institution: | MENG Xiang-ping,etc.(Faculty of Electrical & Information Engineering,Changchun Institute of Technology,Changchun 130012,China) |
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| Abstract: | Power load forecasting is one of the important parts in power system planning.This paper focused on the research of load forecasting and proposed an improved fuzzy AHP for mid-long term load forecasting.Firstly,Triangular fuzzy number is introduced to the model for indicating the judgments of experts,and then AHP is used for dealing with the judgments so as to obtain optimal weights of different forecasting schemes.The factors which can influence power load forecasting are taken into consideration in the pr... |
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| Keywords: | power load forecasting fuzzy AHP triangular fuzzy number recursion order hierarchy structure |
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