产业结构变迁、人力资本与区域经济增长——基于我国省际面板数据的经验证据

产业结构、人力资本是影响区域经济增长的两个重要因素.以2005—2015年我国28个省的面板数据构建个体固定效应模型,探讨与验证产业结构变迁、人力资本水平以及两者交互项对我国不同区域经济增长的影响.实证结果表明:1)相比于物质资本,人力资本的经济增长效应更大.2)产业结构合理化对经济增长的影响均表现为正效应;产业结构高级化对东部地区经济增长有促进作用,对中、西部地区则表现出抑制性.3)总体上,在东、中部地区,产业结构变迁有助于经济增长;在西部地区,产业结构变迁不利于经济增长.因此,提出政府在制定产业发展战略时,要特别注重产业结构的合理性,积极突破制约结构红利的限制条件,实现人力资本及其构成与产业结构的协调发展.

Industrial Structure Change,Human Capital and Regional Economic Growth:Based on the Empirical Evidence of Provincial Panel Data in China

Industrial structure and human capital are the two important factors affecting regional economic growth. Based on the panel data of 28 provinces in China from 2005 to 2015,this paper constructs an individual fixed effect model to explore and verify the economic growth effect of industrial structure transformation,human capital and interaction of the two elements on different regions of China. The empirical results show that:( 1)Compared with the material capital,the economic growth effect of human capital is greater.( 2) The effects of industrial structure rationalization on economic growth is positive,while industrial structure optimization has a positive effect on economic growth in the eastern region,while in the central and western regions shows inhibition.( 3) Generally,in the eastern and central regions,the industrial structure transformation contributes to the regional economic growth; however,in the western region,industrial structure transformation is not conducive to economic growth. This paper argues that when formulating industrial development strategy,the government should pay special attention to the rationality of the industrial structure and actively break the restrictive conditions that restrict the structure bonus and realize the coordinated development of human capital and its composition and industrial structure.