| 一种模糊组合预测方法 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 吴祈宗,宋颖.一种模糊组合预测方法[J].北京理工大学学报,2004,24(4):393-376. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 吴祈宗 宋颖 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 北京理工大学,管理与经济学院,北京,100081;北京理工大学,管理与经济学院,北京,100081 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 针对预测问题的不确定性,提出一种将组合预测结果扩展到置信集合的模糊组合预测方法.该方法利用概率中置信区间原理并结合模糊数概念,对观测值和各单项预测值进行模糊描述;以组合预测值对观测值的拟合度最高为目标,建立模糊规划模型,求解权重系数.该组合预测方法与单项预测方法相比,预测精度有所提高,具有一般组合预测方法的优点,并以模糊数的形式将预测结果确定在一置信集合内.最后以实例证明了该方法的有效性.
|
| 关 键 词： | 组合预测 模糊规划 组合权重 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-0645(2004)04-0373-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 7/7/2003 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年7月7日 |
Method of Fuzzy Combination Forecasting |
| |
| WU Qi-zong and SONG Ying.Method of Fuzzy Combination Forecasting[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology(Natural Science Edition),2004,24(4):393-376. |
| |
| Authors: | WU Qi-zong and SONG Ying |
| |
| Institution: | School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing100081, China;School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing100081, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Aimed against the uncertainty in forecasting problems, a method of fuzzy combination forecasting is proposed whereby the outcome of combination forecasting is expanded to a confidence interval. By utilizing the theory of confidence interval and the concept of fuzzy number, the outcome of observation and forecasting are transformed into fuzzy numbers. Aimed at maximizing the imitation degree, a model of fuzzy programming is set up to calculate the combination-weighted coefficient. The method not only has the advantages that other ways of combination forecasting share, but it also expands the outcome of forecasting to a confidence interval, which is proved to be effective by an example. |
| |
| Keywords: | combination forecasting fuzzy programming combination-weight |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《北京理工大学学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《北京理工大学学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
