中国出口贸易隐含碳的测算及因素分解研究

本文使用投入产出法,对中国2002年和2007年出口贸易中隐含碳进行了测算,并采用对数平均指数分解(LMDI)模型对出口贸易隐含碳的总量和各部门隐含碳变动进行了因素分解分析.研究结果表明,与2002年相比,2007年中国出口贸易隐含碳总量显著增加,部门间出口贸易隐含碳的变动差异较大,各部门的隐含碳强度均有所减弱.从对出口贸易隐含碳总量变动的因素分解看,规模效应使得隐含碳明显增加,结构效应的影响较为微弱,技术效应促进了隐含碳的减少.从对各部门的因素分解发现,规模效应促使各部门出口隐含碳显著地增加,开放效应与各部门出口隐含碳的变动是同向的,技术效应促进了各部门出口隐含碳的减少.

The Study of Carbon Emissions Embodied in Exports of China

An input-output model was established to calculate embodied-carbon in China's exports in 2002 and 2007. By using logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, the factors was analyzed which influenced the embodied carbon emission in total and sectoral level separately. The results show that compared with 2002, total embodied emissions in China increase significantly in 2007. There is obvious differences among sectors. In total amount, effects of scale catalyze the emission significantly, while impacts of structure effects are less significant; technology effects results in the decline of carbon embodied in exports. On sector level, effect of scale is the most important factor which increases the carbon emission embodied in exports. Effect of openness changes with embodied carbon emission at the same direction. Technology effects decrease the carbon emission embodied in exports of each sector.