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基于LOGIT和系统动力学的客运专线运量预测模型
引用本文:郭欣.基于LOGIT和系统动力学的客运专线运量预测模型[J].北京理工大学学报,2013,33(S1):31-34.
作者姓名:郭欣
作者单位:北京交通大学 轨道交通控制与安全国家重点实验室, 北京 100044
基金项目:北京交通大学国家重点实验室自主课题(RCS2012ZZ001)
摘    要:客运专线运量预测对于制定旅客列车开行方案起决定性作用. 针对客运专线的特点,分析了不同层次旅客的出行需求,建立了系统动力学模型,并对郑西客运专线日客流量进行预测. 通过与近年该客运专线客流结果比较分析,发现模型预测结果与实际客流以及LOGIT预测结果非常接近,验证了模型在运量预测方面的合理性.

关 键 词:旅客满意度  客运量预测  系统动力学模型
收稿时间:7/8/2013 12:00:00 AM

Passenger Capacity Prediction Model Based on LOGIT and System Dynamics for Passenger Dedicated Line
GUO Xin.Passenger Capacity Prediction Model Based on LOGIT and System Dynamics for Passenger Dedicated Line[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology(Natural Science Edition),2013,33(S1):31-34.
Authors:GUO Xin
Institution:State Key Lab of Rail Traffic Control and Safety, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China
Abstract:Passenger volume prediction plays an extremely important role in the planning of passenger train operation. According to the characteristics of passenger dedicated lines (PDL), the different demand of different passengers. A system dynamics model was developed to predict the passenger volume considering passengers' traffic characteristics. At last, the accuracy of the prediction model was verified by an example of Zheng-Xi passenger dedicated line. The results show that the predict results of the model are more reasonable compared with the LOGIT prediction model.
Keywords:passenger satisfaction  prediction of passenger capacity  system dynamics model
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