基于乘客风险意识的公交均衡配流

不确定的公交出行时间可能致使乘客无法准时到达目的地,因此有必要将乘客的风险意识作为公交路径选择的标准之一. 将公交到达延误惩罚费用纳入乘客路径选择标准,描述公交出行时间不确定下乘客的路径选择心理,建立具有风险意识的乘客公交均衡配流模型,设计基于路径的求解算法并应用于小型公交网络. 结果证明惩罚权重大于1的条件下,随着可接受到达时间的增大,乘客的路径选择心理由风险规避逐渐转变为风险倾向. 因此,公交到达延误惩罚费用能够描述乘客公交路径选择的风险意识.

Transit Equilibrium Assignment Based on Passengers Risk Awareness

The uncertainty of transit travel times results in passengers' delay at the destination. Therefore it is necessary to take the risk awareness of passengers into account as one of the transit route choice standard. Firstly, the penalized cost of late arrival was incorporated in the transit route cost, which can describe passengers' route selection behavior. Then, transit equilibrium assignment model based on passengers' risk awareness was established. An algorithm based on route-specific costs was applied to the model and in a small transit network. The results indicated that passengers' route choice behavior can change from risk proneness to risk aversion as the increasing longest acceptable travel time, assuming the coefficient of late arrival penalized cost is larger than 1. So the penalized cost of late arrival can describe the risk awareness of passengers.