| 基于空间误差的道路交通事故影响因素分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王文成,袁振洲,杨小宝,李伟娜,杨洋.基于空间误差的道路交通事故影响因素分析[J].北京理工大学学报,2016,36(S2):107-110. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王文成 袁振洲 杨小宝 李伟娜 杨洋 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京交通大学 城市交通复杂系统理论与技术教育部重点实验室, 北京 100044,北京交通大学 城市交通复杂系统理论与技术教育部重点实验室, 北京 100044,北京交通大学 城市交通复杂系统理论与技术教育部重点实验室, 北京 100044,中国林业科学研究院 资源信息研究所, 北京 100091,北京交通大学 城市交通复杂系统理论与技术教育部重点实验室, 北京 100044 |
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| 基金项目： | 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目（2015JBM054） |
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| 摘 要： | 在考虑空间依赖性的基础上，分析影响城市道路交通事故数量的因素.将研究区域划分为若干面积相等的小区并对小区的交通事故数量及相关属性进行提取，以是否位于环路内、是否有快速路通过、小区内学校和大型医院数量等共11个变量作为影响交通事故的潜在因素，分别建立了交通事故数量的OLS模型、空间滞后模型和空间误差模型，并进行对比.结果表明，三类模型中考虑空间相关性的空间误差模型最优；有医院或学校的区域交通事故相对较多，且医院周边区域的交通事故量最多；大型客运站区域的交通事故量相对较少，这可能是由于大型客运站多位于城市外围所致.
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| 关 键 词： | 道路交通事故 空间依赖性 空间滞后模型 空间误差模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016/10/30 0:00:00 |
Spatial Error for Causes of Road Traffic Accidents |
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| WANG Wen-cheng,YUAN Zhen-zhou,YANG Xiao-bao,LI Wei-na and YANG yang.Spatial Error for Causes of Road Traffic Accidents[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology(Natural Science Edition),2016,36(S2):107-110. |
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| Authors: | WANG Wen-cheng YUAN Zhen-zhou YANG Xiao-bao LI Wei-na and YANG yang |
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| Institution: | MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China,MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China,MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China,Research Institute of Forest Resource Information Techniques, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China and MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China |
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| Abstract: | Considering the spatial dependence of traffic accidents, factors that could affect the quantity of urban traffic accidents were studied. The study area was split into equally sized square cells and the quantity of urban traffic accidents and attributes was extractedin each cell. 11 variables such as relative location with the Second Ring Road,whether by fast road, number of schools and hospitals were takenas factors that could affect traffic accidents. OLS regression model, spatial lag model and spatial error model were established respectively and compared with each other. The study reveals that spatial error model which considers spatial dependence is superior to other models. More traffic accidents will happen in those cells that contain more hospitals or schools. Moreover, hospitals have greater influence on traffic accidents than schools have. In addition, those cells that contain stations have more traffic accidents because of locating in margin of city. |
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| Keywords: | road traffic accidents spatial dependence spatial lag model spatial error model |
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