基于事故因果分析的化工园区脆弱性识别

化工园区脆弱性分析是传统风险分析的重要补充内容，近年来引起了越来越多的关注，然而目前的研究主要集中于脆弱性概念和评价方法上，忽略了脆弱性识别这一关键问题。脆弱性识别是脆弱性评估的关键步骤，对评价内容和评价指标选取具有重要作用。针对化工园区脆弱性识别研究理论和方法欠缺的问题，从事故机理角度提出“干扰-状态-后果”脆弱性理论模型，利用事故因果分析法，从事故过程分析出发对化工园区脆弱性因素进行识别，并建立脆弱性评价指标体系。将指标体系应用于江苏某化工园区的脆弱性评估中，结果表明，基于事故因果分析的脆弱性识别方法为指标体系的建立和评估过程提供了依据，对化工园区具有适用性。

Identification of chemical industry park vulnerability based on accident analysis

As an important supplement of traditional risk analysis, evaluation of the vulnerability of chemical industry parks has attracted increasing attention. Previous research has mainly focused on the concept of vulnerability and evaluation methods, and has ignored the key issue of vulnerability identification. Vulnerability identification is an important step in vulnerability assessment, and has an important impact on the selection of assessment content and indicators. Given the problem of insufficient theory and methods of vulnerability identification in chemical industry parks, an “Interference-state-effect” theoretical model is proposed from the perspective of analysis of an accident mechanism. The vulnerability factors of a chemical industry park are identified by considering the main disaster-causing bodies and disaster-bearing bodies, and a vulnerability evaluation index system is established, which is subsequently applied to the vulnerability evaluation of a chemical industry park in Jiangsu Province. The results show that vulnerability identification based on accident cause-effect analysis provides a basis for the establishment of a vulnerability assessment index system and vulnerability assessment, and is applicable to a wide range of chemical industry parks.