结合台风模拟的混合气候下分风向极值风速估计方法

采用Monte Carlo方法分别获取台风和良态风气候的极值风速样本.其中,台风气候极值风速采用Yan Meng台风模型进行模拟,而良态风气候则是对气象站风速数据拟合极值分布后再模拟一定数量的极值数据,然后对两者进行组合.最后,结合风速风向分布模型提出一种考虑风向的极值风速估计方法.利用该方法对上海地区极值风速设计值进行了估算,并讨论了其特性.模拟结果不仅同时展现台风和良态风两种气候的极值分布形态,还表明了受台风影响的地区各个风向上极值风速具有一定程度的相关性.

ESTIMATING DIRECTIONAL EXTREME WIND SPEEDS IN MIXED CLIMATES COMBINED WITH TYPHOON

Samples of extreme wind speeds of typhoon climate and normal climate were separately obtained with the Monte Carlo Method. For the typhoon climate, the samples of extreme wind speeds were simulated with the typhoon wind field model established by Yan Meng. For the normal climate, the samples of extreme wind speeds were simulated with the distribution function fitted from the wind observation data. Then, a new method of estimating the directional extreme wind speeds was proposed. The results of the estimated extreme wind speeds were presented and discussed on the basis of a case study of Shanghai. The results revealed the distribution of extreme wind speeds and the reasonable transition between these climates. The correlation among the extreme wind speeds in different directions was also found in the mixed climate.