广州地区台风极值风特性蒙特卡罗随机模拟

结合1949—2003年台风年鉴统计资料和广州气象站逐时（连续）气象观测记录,采用蒙特卡罗台风风场随机模型和敏感度分析方法,计算了广州地区不同场地类别风环境随机参数对于台风极值风速的影响,并对该区域的台风风场参数合理取值进行了优化.以越界峰值法和广义Pareto分布探讨了工程场地目标重现期内极值风速预测分析过程,再现了几类典型工程场地台风风环境梯度风高度、平均风剖面、极值风速和阵风因子取值特点,并与规范结果进行了对比.

Monte-Carlo Simulation Analysis of Typhoon Extreme Value Wind Characteristics in Guangzhou

Based on abundant typhoon observation data obtained from meteorological satellite observation and on-site wind velocity records in Guangzhou weather station from 1949 to 2003, sensitivity indices about several wind field stochastic parameters to typhoon extreme value wind in the region of Guangzhou are calculated by adopting Monte-Carlo typhoon stochastic model and sensitivity analysis technique. With a comparison of the results of the Monte-Carlo simulation and the in-situ observation, those wind field parameters can be optimized easily. The process of extreme value wind prediction is proposed, then typhoon extreme wind characteristics in several typical civil engineering fields nearby Guangzhou weather station are simulated on the basis of Peak Over threshold method and generalized Pareto distribution. Distribution rules are illustrated about gradient wind height, wind profile, extreme wind velocity and gust factor etc.. Finally, a comparative study is conducted on the results and those of Chinese Wind Load Code.