台风风场随机参数敏感性分析

在沿海台风多发区域，高耸和长大结构对于台风风速作用非常敏感，故有必要合理估算结构寿命期内可能遭遇的台风极值风速，结合台风气候条件下风速分布模型与Monte-Carlo可靠度分析方法，构建了台风风场随机模型，分析了台风风场风速的分布特点，数值化地再现台风的基本结构．选用1949年至2001年对上海地区有明显作用的75个台风记录，用敏感性分析方法计算了台风风场多个随机参数对于台风极值风速的贡献程度，为台风随机模型的极值风速预测作了必要的准备．

Stochastic Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of Typhoon Wind Field

In the typhoon-prone regions,long-span and higher structures are susceptible under extreme wind velocity,so it is very necessary to access possible typhoon extreme wind velocity for a given structure lifetime.Combining wind velocity distribution model in the climate of typhoon with Monte-Carlo method,analysis procedure of stochastic typhoon wind field is proposed,while some characters of wind velocity in typhoon wind field are illustrated numerically.Using 75 strong typhoons that affected Shanghai regions violently in the past of about 50 years (1949-2001),stochastic parameter sensitivity indices about typhoon extreme wind velocity are computed by means of sensitivity analysis method,which can be used for the extreme value wind prediction of typhoon stochastic models.