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预测地铁施工中地表变形的动态系统方法
引用本文:潘国荣,王穗辉,刘大杰.预测地铁施工中地表变形的动态系统方法[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2001,29(3):294-298.
作者姓名:潘国荣  王穗辉  刘大杰
作者单位:同济大学测量与国土信息工程系,
摘    要:提出了基于自回归(AR)模型对时间序列统一建模的新观点和方法,可大大减少计算量,并在微机上编程实现,以实例对动态模型与静态模型分别作了应用比较,结果表明,时间序列分析动态模型是系统分析的重要方法,是统计预测中的高级预测方法,预测精度高,用途广泛,而静态模型适合于内插,不适合于外推预报。

关 键 词:动态模型  静态模型  预测  地铁施工  地表变形  自回归模型  时间序列分析
文章编号:0253-374(2001)03-0294-05
修稿时间:2000年2月29日

Dynamic Model and Forecasting of Ground Deformation in Subway Construction
PAN Guo rong,WANG Sui hui,LIU Da jie.Dynamic Model and Forecasting of Ground Deformation in Subway Construction[J].Journal of Tongji University(Natural Science),2001,29(3):294-298.
Authors:PAN Guo rong  WANG Sui hui  LIU Da jie
Abstract:This article issues a new viewpoint and method in modeling for time series based on AR model. The method is able to give less calculating and to be programmed on computer. Compared with the cases of application between the dynamic model and the static model, it is indicated that the model of time series analysis dynamic model is an important and advanced forecasting method in statistical forecasting, and has higher forecasting accuracy. This method can be widely used in fields. But static model is available for interpolation, not for extrapolated forecasting.
Keywords:dynamic model  static model  forecasting
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