台风随机模拟与极值风速预测应用

采用Monte-Carlo台风风场随机模型，结合台风历史记录资料和近地台风观测结果，对上海周边沿海区域内的台风风场参数合理取值进行了优化．以越界峰值法和广义№分布探讨了工程场地目标重现期内极值风速预测分析过程，使在较短台风风速序列上进行极值风速预测成为可能．而后，将上述理论与方法应用于上海-崇明越江通道工程极值风环境研究，预测了台风气候模式工程场地重现期极值风速结果，并与实测结果和规范进行了对比。

Application of Typhoon Stochastic Simulation and Its Extreme Value Wind Prediction

Using Monte-Carlo stochastic model of typhoon wind field and its observation records in the past of about 50 years,some parameters of typhoon wind field at Shanghai seashore are optimized. In the context of peak over threshold method and general Pareto distribution,the process of typhoon extreme value wind predic- tion in return period for civil engineering field is discussed,so it becomes possible that extreme value wind pre- diction of typhoon climate is carried out based on short period observations. The stochastic model and method mentioned above are applied to the prediction of extreme value wind about Shanghai-Chongming channel con- nection engineering under typhoon climate mode,while the corresponding results are tested by comparing with observed ones and codes.