岩溶泉流量的动态分析及非线性随机模型的应用

Regime Analysis of Discharge of the Karstic Spring and the Use of the Nonlinear Stochastic Model

On the basis of the analysis of geological and hydro-geological conditions in the Longzici spring basin area, the hydrogeological conceptual model is established. The spring discharge regime is revealed in depth by means of the connection degree analysis in gery system theory, the cross-correlation function analysis and the spectral analysis, which provides the essential information and basis for establishing stochastic mathematical models of the spring regime. The application of nonlinear time series model, that is, threshold autoregressive model to simulating the spring discharge regime is emphatically discussed, and the selfexciting threshold autoregressive model and the mixed threshold autoregressive model are presented. The models established can be used for forecasting the spring discharge regime and further analysing the hydrogeological conditions.