提供交通信息条件下的途中改道行为研究

针对我国城市快速道路先进出行者信息系统的宴例——上海城市快速路交通诱导系统，研究了提供交通信息条件下的途中改道行为．针对一块实地运行的中型图文混合型可变信息标志（VMS），采用偏好陈述调查法（stated preference survey）采集途中改道行为数据，采用离散选择分析方法分析数据，估计了描述途中改道行为的多元罗吉特模型．分析表明，交通信息会影响改道行为，不同的信息内容对改道行为影响是不同的（例如事故信息的影响较大），驾驶员的年龄、性别等个体属性也是影响改道行为的因素．最后，给出下一步研究设想．研究结果可为先进出行者信息系统的投资、运营和评价提供有力依据．

Study on Traveler Behavior Under Influence of Advanced Traveler Information System

This paper presents a study on the en-route diversion response to variable message signs(VMS) of Advanced Traveler Information System(ATIS) for Metropolitan Expressways in Shanghai,China.The study includes a stated preference(SP) questionnaire survey on en-route diversion response to a new type of VMS incorporating graphical traffic information(i.e.color-coded level of service information) with textual information,a disaggregate choice analysis method used to analyze the SP data,and a multinomial logit model(MNL) estimated.Main findings are that,VMS information has obvious impacts on en-route diversion behavior;different VMS messages have different effects on en-route diversion(e.g.drivers are sensitive to incident related message and severe congestion, re-(sulting) in the increase of diversion probabilities);and such social-economical attributes as age,gender are also factors influencing en-route diversion.The results provide a basis for the investment,design,operation and assessment of VMS-based ATIS.