| 基于Bass模型对中国私人载客汽车市场预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 董慧玲,介俊.基于Bass模型对中国私人载客汽车市场预测研究[J].北京工商大学学报(自然科学版),2007,25(4):63-66. |
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| 作者姓名： | 董慧玲 介俊 |
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| 作者单位： | 昆明理工大学,管理与经济学院,云南,昆明,650093 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用Bass产品扩散模型对购买私人载客汽车市场进行研究.利用购买累计数量统计数据,估计了模型参数,并对未来购买私人载客汽车的累积购买量到达的高峰时间和数量进行了预测.同时分析了影响购买人数增加的因素,对模型在预测购买累积人数的有效性方面进行了验证.
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| 关 键 词： | 私人载客汽车 bass扩散模型 产品预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-1513（2007）04-0063-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-04-19 |
ESTIMATION OF PRIVATE PASSENGER VEHICLES IN CHINA THROUGH BASS MODEL |
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| DONG Hui-ling,JIE Jun.ESTIMATION OF PRIVATE PASSENGER VEHICLES IN CHINA THROUGH BASS MODEL[J].Journal of Beijing Technology and Business University:Natural Science Edition,2007,25(4):63-66. |
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| Authors: | DONG Hui-ling JIE Jun |
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| Institution: | Faculty of Management and Economics, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China |
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| Abstract: | Applied the Bass diffusion model to study the accumulative number of the Private passenger vehicles.Used the statistic data,estimated the parameters of the model,and predicted the magnitude of the sales and the time to peak sales.And also examined the factors of the growth of the Private passenger vehicles and tested the fit of goodness of the model. |
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| Keywords: | private passenger vehicles Bass diffusion model product prediction |
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