蒙特卡罗法在产品营销风险分析中的应用

用蒙特卡罗方法(利用计算机产生大量随机样本,然后对这些样本结果进行概率分析,从而来预测结果的一种随机模拟方法.)模拟了一例产品营销中的收益和风险,直观地再现了营销活动中的假设和由此产生的结果,尤其是在关注风险发生概率时.本文展现了该方法在作营销风险预测时的一些基本处理技巧和在计算机上的实现,为决策者提供了可行性分析.

APPLICATION OF MONTE CARLO SIMULATION TECHNIQUE FOR FORECASTING RISK ABOUT MARKETING A NEW KIND OF PRODUCT

In this article,we use Monte Carlo simulation technique(a kind of random simulation technique,which gives forecast through producing a large number of samples by computer firstly,then doing probability analysis to these sampling results.) to forecast the profit and risk about marketing a new kind of product,represent the hypothesis and results produced by marketing behaviors intuitively,especially when we are concerned on the probability of risk.We give some fundamental techniques and computer operations while the technique is used to perform a risk forecast,help to create credibility with decision makers.