VAR模型在3G用户规模预测中的应用

3G(Third Generation)用户规模的大小,将直接关系到我国未来通信事业发展前景。很多机构和个人应用各种线性,非线性模型对中国的3G用户规模进行了预测,但大多数模型分析都没有充分利用3G用户群特点。为此,在充分分析3G用户群特点的基础上,采用间接预测方法,把向量自回归模型(VAR:Vector Autoregression)引入3G用户规模预测中。通过建立CDMA(Code Division Multiple Address)用户数、互联网用户数、2G用户数的三变量的VAR模型,验证了宽带网络用户与CDMA用户之间的相互替代关系,并采用宽带网络用户数间接预测了3G未来网络用户规模。预测结果显示,到2008年中国3G需求空间将为6千多万户。这一巨大的市场规模将会直接影响中国3G产业的发展与政策制订。

Application Use of VAR in Forecasting Network Scale of 3G

The scale of 3G(third generation) network users has direct effect on the prospect of telecommunication industry in China.Institutions and researchers have forecasted the scale in different ways,which led to different conclusions,but most of the models did not consider the characteristics of users.Our paper took this issue into account,and forecasted the scale in an indirect way,using VAR(Vector Autoregression)model to testify the substitutability of Internet and CDMA(Code Division Multiple Address),and adopting the number of Internet users to forecast the number of 3G network users.The conclusion indicated that in the year 2008,the scale of 3G network users will be more than sixty million.This large scale will affect the future of 3G industry and related policies in China.