基于时间序列的可燃物含水率指数模型的研究

为提高预防林火发生和火灾工作预测的准确性, 研究了森林可燃物含水率与气象因子的非线性关系, 以 分析森林可燃物含水率的变化。 以哈尔滨城市林业示范基地为研究基地, 选取 3 种典型的林分中地表死可燃 物含水率作为研究对象, 在 2014 年 9 ~11 月秋季防火期内, 每周选取固定的两天时间, 从 8 ~18 点时测量, 选 取枯叶、 1 hr 枯枝和 10 hr 枯枝分类进行研究, 得到的数据运用 EXCEL2013 和 SPSS19. 0 对数据进行后续的处 理和相关性分析, 研究了秋季防火期内蒙古栎、 胡桃楸和白桦 3 种林型中可燃物含水率与气象因子的相关性分 析, 建立了非线性的指数模型。 3 种林型的可燃物含水率范围在 14% ~67%, 在非线性模型中, 得知前 1 h 与 当前时间段的相关性最高, 达到 0. 89, 白桦和蒙古栎林型的模型精度均小于 15%, 精度较好。

Research on Prediction Model of Forest Fuel Moisture Based on Time Series

The nonlinear relationship between forest fuel moisture and meteorological factors is an important theoretical basis for the occurrence of forest fire and the prevention of fire. The moisture content of surface dead fuel in three typical stands in Harbin urban city forestry demonstration base is taken as the object of study. During the fall from September 2014 to November, the fixed two days are selected every week. The results showed that the moisture content and meteorological factors of the combustible species in the three forest types of Quercus mongolica, Juglans mandshurica, Betula platyphylla were studied from 8:00 to 18:00, and the dead leaves, the 10 hr dead branches and the 1hr dead branches were selected to analyze nonlinear relationship between moisture content and meteorological factors of materials, EXCEL 2013 and SPSS19. 0 are used on the data for follow-up processing and correlation analysis. The results showed that:it was found that moisture of fuel in the three forest types ranged from 14% to 67%;In the nonlinear model It is found that the correlation between one hour ago and the current time is the highest that reaches 0. 89. In the nonlinear exponential model, the model accuracy of Quercus mongolica and White birch was less than 15%. The accuracy of the model is better.