组织适应性学习、联盟网络结构与网络外部性市场演化

从两种互不兼容技术同时扩散的视角出发，运用行为经济学理论分析了组织适应性学习和组织网络结构的交互作用对网络外部性市场的技术演化的影响。仿真结果表明：组织适应性学习的类型和强度以及联盟网络结构的聚集效应特征是驱动网络外部性市场演化的重要因素，在一定程度上决定了市场演化的均衡结果。当组织采取强化型学习行为时，市场演化的均衡结果总是两种技术共存；当组织采取信念型学习行为时，在组织学习效应很强且联盟网络结构聚集效应特征不明显的条件下，市场演化呈现赢家通吃现象，反之依然为两种技术共存。这些结论有助于企业进一步理解网络外部性市场演化的内在机制和赢家通吃的边界条件。

Organizational Adaptive Learning,Alliance Network Structure and the Evolution of Market with Network Externalities

Based on the diffusion of two incompatible technologies, we study the technological evolution in the market with network externalities by analyzing the interaction between organizational adaptive learning and organizational network structure. The simulation results show that: the equilibrium market share of the new technology is determined by two key factors, namely, the characteristics of organizational learning behavior and the strength of local network externalities. When the organizations adopt reinforcement learning, the outcome of market evolution equilibrium is two coexisted technologies; when the organizations take belief-based learning behavior, in case of learning effect is strong and the strength of local network externalities is moderate, market evolves to winner-take-all, or otherwise, the two kinds of technologies coexist. These results are helpful for firms to further understand the internal mechanism and boundary conditions of winner-take-all in markets with network externalities.