中概股企业私有化退市决策模型：基于价值低估假说

基于中概股企业私有化退市背景，分别建立了中概股企业继续海外上市与私有化退市两种情形下的企业价值模型，模拟控股股东私有化退市决策的权衡过程。结果表明：存在一个净现金流临界值，当中概股企业的净现金流大于该临界值时，继续海外上市时的企业价值更大，控股股东应选择继续海外上市；反之应选择私有化退市。中概股企业继续海外上市的资本成本率和上市维持成本越高、获取净现金流的能力越弱，净现金流临界值越高。私有化退市后的资本成本率越低以及获取净现金流的能力越强，净现金流临界值越高。最后，利用Matlab进行仿真分析并以智联招聘私有化退市为对象进行案例分析，验证了理论模型所得结论的合理性与可行性。研究结论对中概股企业私有化退市决策具有重要借鉴意义。

Decision-Making Model for Privatization and Delisting of China Concept Stock Companies Based on the Hypothesis of Underestimation

Based on the background of the privatization and delisting of China stock concept, this paper models the tradeoff that the controlling shareholders of China concept stock companies face when deciding whether to privatize from foreign capital market. It models the value of the company that keeps overseas-listing and the value of the company that privatizes. The results show that there is a threshold of net cash flow used by the controlling shareholder to determine whether to privatize or not. The value of the company which keeps overseas-listing will be greater when the net cash flow is greater than the threshold, which means the controlling shareholder should keep the China concept stock listing on foreign market in order to maximize the value of the company. Otherwise, the China concept stock company should privatize when the net cash flow is smaller than the threshold. As the overseas-listing compliance cost and the capital cost increase, the ability to get net cash flow weakens if the firm keep overseas-listing, and the threshold of net cash flow increases. As the capital cost decreases and the ability to get net cash flow after privatizing strengthens, the threshold of net cash flow increases. Both the simulation using Matlab and the case study of Zhaopin’s privatization support the above conclusions. The conclusions have practical significance for the privatization and delisting decision-making of China concept stock.