| 基于Agent的经济政策对电力消费影响模拟实验 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐敏杰,胡兆光.基于Agent的经济政策对电力消费影响模拟实验[J].系统管理学报,2011,20(5). |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐敏杰 胡兆光 |
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| 作者单位： | 国网能源研究院,北京,100052 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了模拟某些经济调控政策对电力消费的影响,基于一般均衡思想,运用多Agent技术建立了经济政策对电力消费影响的政策模拟系统ECMAS.在ECMAS中,根据2005年投入产出表和电力消费数据,将宏观经济生产系统归总的15个行业Agent、政府Agent、居民Agent和市场Agent,各Agent为实现自身的目标,根据外部环境的变化决策动作行为,通过微观个体的行为动作模拟社会经济运行,分析了税收变化、居民消费变化、政府支出变化对电力消费的影响,为电力需求分析预测、电力规划提供依据.
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| 关 键 词： | 政策模拟 多智能体系统 一般均衡理论 电力消费 |
Simulating Impact of Macroeconomic Policy on Electricity Consumption Based on Multi-agent |
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| XU Min-jie
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HU Zhao-guang.Simulating Impact of Macroeconomic Policy on Electricity Consumption Based on Multi-agent[J].Systems Engineering Theory·Methodology·Applications,2011,20(5). |
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| Authors: | XU Min-jie HU Zhao-guang |
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| Institution: | XU Min-jie,HU Zhao-guang(State Grid Energy Research Institute,Beijing 100052,China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to simulate impacting of macroeconomic policy on electricity consumption,an Electricity Consumption Simulation System Based on Multi-agent System(ECMAS) was developed based on general equilibrium theory.In ECMAS,macroeconomic system consists of government agent,resident agent,market agent and fifteen industry agents who were concluded according to 2005 I/O table and data of electricity consumption.Through simulating agent's behavior,the impact of macroeconomic policy,household consumption expenditu... |
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| Keywords: | policy simulation multi-agent system general equilibrium theory electricity consumption |
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