基于Monte Carlo方法的PERT网络关键路线和最关键活动分析

在定义计划评审技术（program evaluation and review technique, PERT）网络局部关键活动、关键活动、关键路线和活动关键度的基础上，提出了关键活动、关键路线的分析方法；根据活动不确定性对项目计划工期影响的大小，即活动敏感性指标的大小，确定活动在项目进度控制中的重要程度；在定义活动相对敏感性、活动敏感性的基础上，利用全概率公式，得到活动敏感性指标计算公式，进而提出了最关键活动分析方法。算例表明，利用本研究提出的方法可便捷地找出PERT网络的关键路线和最关键活动。

Analysis of critical path and most critical activity in PERT networks based on Monte Carlo method

On the basis of defining local critical activity,critical activity,critical path and activity criticality of the program evaluation and review technique(PERT) networks,the analysis methods of critical path and critical activity are put forward.According to the extent of influence on the planned project duration caused by the activity uncertainty,namely,the activity sensitivity index,the importance of each activity in project control is analyzed.After defining the activity relative sensitivity and activity sensitivity,by using the total probability theorem,the calculation formula of activity sensitivity index is created to further put forward the analysis method of the most critical activity.Example analysis shows that the critical path and the most critical activity in PERT networks can be easily identified with the proposed methods.