基于仿真的武器装备研制系统性能风险评估

性能风险是指在预定的资源条件（如费用和进度）下，研制系统从原有设计水平向较高性能设计水平演进过程中技术性能水平达不到预期要求所带来的风险。根据武器装备研制过程中各子系统活动的研制失败概率及相应的多反馈分支,建立图示评审技术随机网络仿真模型，通过设定仿真时钟实现对研制工期的约束。对仿真输出结果进行统计分析，建立在研制费用与研制工期约束下子系统级和项目级性能风险概率评估模型，分析项目级与子系统级性能风险概率分布之间的关系。最后，结合某武器装备研制项目给出详细的分析过程，并已验证仿真模型和风险评估模型的实用性和有效性。

Assessment of performance risk for weapon system development based on simulation method

Performance risk is usually defined as the risk that technical performance failed to achieve desired level under the scheduled resource conditions (such as cost and schedule). The failure probability and multi branch feedback of activities within subsystems is brought in the graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) network, and a feedback simulation model is established. The schedule constraints are achieved by setting the simulation clock TNOW. The assessment models of the performance risk probability of both subsystem level and project level are established under the cost and schedule constraints, also the relationship between the distributions of the performance risk probability of both the project level and the subsystem level is studied. The performance risk of a specific weapon system is analyzed, which proves the feasibility and effectiveness of the simulation model.