基于作战环的导弹武器系统体系相对贡献率评估

基于作战环理论,从节点、边、环等层次建立武器装备体系作战网络模型,并结合蒙特卡罗方法,提出一套高效的体系相对贡献率评估方法。针对典型作战想定,研究两种导弹不同发射数目对突防和毁伤概率的影响。仿真结果表明:导弹的突防概率随着发射数目的增加而显著增加;当导弹发射数目超过6枚时,目标毁伤概率高达95.3%以上,基本达到饱和;导弹I₂作战效能明显比导弹I₁高；当发射导弹数量小于等于3枚时, I₂的体系相对贡献率达到133.3%以上。

Evaluation of relative contribution rate of missile weapon system-of-systems based on combat ring

Based on the combat ring theory, the combat network model of the weapon equipment system-of-systems is established from the nodes, edges and rings. An efficient system relative contribution rate evaluation method is proposed based on the Monte Carlo method. According to typical combat scenarios, the effects of two types of missiles on the penetration probability and damage probability are studied under different emission numbers. Simulation results show that the missile penetration probability increases significantly with the increase of its number. When more than six missiles are launched, the target's damage probability is as high as 95.3%, which is basically saturated. The operational effectiveness of I₂ is significantly higher than I₁. When the number of missiles is less than 3, the system-of-systems relative contribution rate of I₂ reaches more than 133.3%.