基于置信规则推理的武器装备体系贡献度评估

针对武器装备体系贡献度评估中存在任务与能力关联复杂、数据处理缺乏有效性等问题,提出了基于置信规则推理的体系贡献度评估方法。首先,搭建了体系贡献度评估框架,通过使命分解和作战体系分析建立了“任务-能力”关联矩阵,并在此基础上构建了网络化多层次的评估指标体系。然后,利用基于置信规则推理的评估方法对体系作战效能进行推理。最后,根据体系贡献度评估模型计算武器装备体系贡献度。以空中遮断作战体系为例进行分析验证,结果表明该方法有效反映了体系的涌现性,客观评估了武器装备的体系贡献度,能够为装备迭代更新、作战体系发展规划提供理论支持。

Evaluation of weapon equipment contribution rate to system-of- systems based on belief rule-based system

The complex relationship between tasks and capabilities and the validity of data processing are the main difficulties in the evaluation process of contribution rate to system-of-systems. Aiming at these problems, a weapon equipment contribution rate evaluation method based on the belief rule-based system is proposed. Firstly, the weapon equipment contribution rate to the system-of-systems evaluation framework is constructed. By decomposing the mission and analyzing the combat system-of-systems (CSoS), the "task-capability" incidence matrix is built. On this basis, the hierarchical evaluation criteria system of the equipment contribution rate is established. Afterwards, the belief rule base is created according to the evaluation criteria system and the belief rule-based system is adopted to infer the task effectiveness of the CSoS. Finally, the weapon equipment contribution rate to system-of-systems is evaluated by the evaluation model. The study result of air interdiction CSoS shows that this method can reflect the emergence of the CSoS effectively and evaluate the weapon equipment contribution rate to system-of-systems objectively. This approach can provide the theoretical support for the updating of equipment and the CSoS development.