考虑活动随机重叠和资源冲突的复杂产品开发流程仿真建模

构建描述活动随机重叠的设计结构矩阵，考虑复杂产品开发流程中活动的重叠迭代、顺序迭代，以及活动工期与成本的不确定性，建立复杂产品开发流程仿真模型。针对项目执行过程中的资源限制，建立考虑随机迭代的处理资源冲突的优先规则，并设计仿真算法。以某无人作战飞机初步研制流程为研究对象，对仿真输出数据进行统计分析，估计项目费用、工期及风险。通过与已有模型仿真输出结果的比较分析，说明本仿真模型与算法更加符合复杂产品开发流程实际。

Simulation modeling of complex product development process considering stochastic activities overlap and resource conflict

A design structure matrix-based simulation model of complex product development process incorporating stochastic activities overlap is presented to model the sequential,parallel and coupled relationship between activities.This model can effectively deal with activities overlapping iteration and sequential iteration.This model takes into account uncertain activities duration and cost.A priority rule is designed to cope with resource conflict when existing uncertain factors and iteration;and a discrete event system simulation algorithm is developed.The example of preliminary design of an uninhabited combat aerial vehicle is used to illustrate the proposed simulation model.The probability of duration delay and cost overrun is estimated by analyzing simulation output data.The simulation results show that the presented model is more in line with the actual situation of the project compared with existing models.