工程项目计划"关键性"问题拓展研究

工程项目计划中传统“关键”概念及其衡量指标存在着局限性。基于风险管理理论对网络计划中的“关键”进行拓展研究。对几个经典关键性指标———线路关键概率 (PCP)、工作关键概率 (ACP)和工作关键指标(ACI)进行了比较研究 ;鉴于各自的利弊 ,提出应将ACP与ACI相结合的管理思路。同时提出了一个表征项目整体关键 /风险水平的新指标PCI,着重阐述了各指标在项目决策与管理中的重要作用。用VisualC 开发了相应网络计划蒙特卡洛仿真 (MCS)软件NETSIMU ,并将其应用于一个工程实例分析。此研究成果有助于管理者全面而准确地把握工程项目计划中的关键

Expanded study on criticality in the project network planning

The existing criticality indexes in the project network planning have some limitations to some extent. The notion of criticality in the project planning is expanded on the basis of the theory of risk management. Firstly, several classical criticality indexes, including path criticality probability (PCP), activity criticality probability (ACP), activity criticlity index (ACI), are thoroughly compared and analyzed. In view of their respective merits and drawbacks, it is suggested that ACP and ACI should be integrated in the decision-making and management. And then project criticality index (PCI), a new index that reflects the criticality (risk) of the whole project or subproject, is proposed. Furthermore, the roles that all these indexes may play in the project decision-making and management are highlighted. Finally, a network planning software of Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS), NETSIMU, is developed with Visual C and applied to the analysis of a project instance. This study may help to identify and manage the criticality in the project planning comprehensively and accurately.