航天项目费用影响下的进度不确定性定量分析

航天项目中费用与进度大致服从正态分布与对数正态分布,针对这一基本结论,给出了在费用不确定性的影响下,对进度不确定性进行定量分析的方法,推导了费用不确定性影响下的进度不确定性估算公式。该方法对于航天项目进度风险的分析与管理具有可操作性强的实用价值,便于预测费用影响下的进度风险,从而采取合理的措施。以某具体航天项目为例,分析了进度不确定性将如何随着费用的不确定性而发生变化,并进一步指出了进度不确定性的其它若干个可能的影响因素。

Quantitative analysis of the schedule uncertainty of the spaceflight project considering the cost uncertainty

For many spaceflight projects,their costs obey the mormal distribution and their schedules obey the log-normal distribution approximately.Based on this statistical result,the method was put forward to analyze the schedule uncertainty if given the cost uncertainty,and the formula was derived to calculate the schedule uncertainty of the spaceflight project considering the cost uncertainty.This helps to forecast the project schedule risk when considering the influence of the cost,thus the managers can take reasonable measures to deduce the risk.A case was given to demonstrate how the schedule uncertainty will changes along with the cost uncertainty,also,the other several factors was pointed out.