一种基于效能的时间敏感目标打击时机估计方法

以提高打击效果为目的,研究了精确制导武器打击时间敏感目标的发射时机估计问题。首先运用混合总体商变换方法和精确制导武器射击理论建立了相应的作战效能模型,包括即时概率模型、捕捉概率模型、命中概率模型和毁伤概率模型。然后依据给定的作战效能模型,提出给定条件下远程精确制导武器打击陆地时间敏感目标的发射时机估计方法,并进行了算例分析和t检验,计算结果检验了估计方法的有效性。最后通过研究不同条件下的发射时机区间长度,指出远程精确制导武器航程和时间精度等级是影响发射时机估计的主要因素。

Method to evaluate launch-occasion of the precision-guided weapon to TST based on effectiveness

To improve the effectiveness of the precision-guided weapon attacking the time sensitive target(TST),the launch-occasion evaluation problem is researched.First the models of operational effectiveness,including the prompt probability model,the catching probability model,the hit probability model and the destroy probability model,are set up based on the mixture population theory and precision-guided weapon gunnery.Then the method based on the models of operational effectiveness to evaluate launch-occasion is presented,which is the long range precision-guided weapon to the land-time sensitive target.An example and the results of t-check verify that the method is feasible.And last,the results of launch-occasion evaluation range analysis shows that the main factors of launch-occasion evaluation are the voyage of long range precision-guided weapon and the precision of time sensitive critical value.